Presidential Election Musings

With the weekend being fairly slow, I figured I'd take some time to take a look at the Presidential Race thus far and try to make some sense of where all this has been and is heading in the next couple of months.

The Republican Candidates

Rudy Giuliani-- Rudy has run an extremely solid campaign thus far. His 80-20 message seemed to sit OK with Conservatives at CPAC a week or two ago and generally speaking, he seems to be the moderate candidate, as John McCain has more or less fallen on his face out of the gate. Giuliani is trying to keep this debate as much about National Security as humanly possible, which is what has more or less put him on the map to begin with. However, he's still got a lot of questions to answer, especially about some seedy female-related activity in the past, however I think concerns over this may be overstated, at least in a political sense. Yes, his promiscuity will rub Republicans the wrong way, but head to head, Hillary Clinton certainly can't hammer him with it. Yes, he's 'more liberal' on 'important' social issues, but Republicans seem to be looking for someone who can really sell and better prosecute the War in Iraq. Overall, I think he's in a good position, but again, there are some questions to be answered, but it's safe to say it's a little early yet to predict how they'll play out. Overall, he's looked strong.

Mitt Romney-- Mitt seems to be emerging as the Conservative choice, although he's still in the 'getting to know you' mode. Romney, in my view, is probably the strongest candidate at this point from a political perspective. The Mormonism won't be an issue. When candidates attack Mormon candidates, they do so implying that its creepy. What makes it creepy? The answer is polygamy. Mitt has been married longer than anyone in the field. Considering McCain and Giuliani's partners were mistresses before they were anything else gives them very little credibility in terms of being able to make those claims. I think he'll be fine.

In terms of organization, Mitt's campaign is unmatched right now, with the possible exception of Hillary Clinton. He's raking in the cash and essentially stacked the rolls down at CPAC to win the straw poll and make himself a legitimate candidate amongst McCain and Giuliani. Some people are questioning his moderate views in the past, but Mitt has consistently moved to the right over the years, and doesn't LOOK like a panderer. Mitt's done the best so far because he's accomplished the most. He proved he can raise money with the best of them and flat out, out-organized the rest of the field at CPAC. He's arrived and seems to gradually be picking up more and more steam, although the arrival of a Newt Gingrich-type Conservative Candidate could seriously eat into his support.

John McCain-- I don't really get what McCain's strategy has been. He announced his candidacy in front of a largely liberal audience and his double-talk on many issues is beginning to really torpedo his poll numbers. More or less, McCain has been the most quiet of the big three Republican candidates in the media, and doesn't seem to really be able to get both feet under him. Romney's nimbleness and Rudy's marketing have forced McCain's campaign off balance and he almost seems dead on arrival to many. He has a huge uphill battle to wage and his failure to react more quickly in the past few months may have left him permanently behind. His name recognition make him a perennial threat not to be taken likely by anyone, but he has appeared to be completely out-maneuvered in the early part of this campaign.

The Rest-- There isn't much to be said about the Republican field outside of the Three Musketeers. Newt Gingrich confessing his affair this past week all but puts him on the outside for good. Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo, while very likable, certainly look like second tier candidates. They may liven up the debate, but don't look for these two to really go anywhere. The one dark horse with an outside shot of making a name for himself is Sam Brownback of Kansas, whose organization was commended at CPAC both for it's scope and general aggressiveness. Brownback is well to the right of even Romney and has the burden of being a legislator in the US Senate these days to keep him down, but if Brownback plays his cards right, he could make himself, ironically, the anti-establishment candidate in this election, even though his views are probably the most congruent with the current ideological bent of the Republican Party.



The Democrats


Hillary Clinton-- I'm utterly shocked at how her campaign has struggled out of the gate. While hugely popular with the base, voters don't seem to be 'buying into' her like they went for her husband. Her stump speeches have appeared forced and rather cookie cutter, and she's struggling to establish herself as a likable candidate. She's been reacting to news rather than making it and seemingly has been off-balance the entire last month or so despite not really seeing anything in the way of resistance. In sum, Hillary seems to be hurting Hillary, and if you're a supporter of hers, that's not a good sign, even this early.

Barack Obama-- Obama's been the hot candidate on the left for sure. Despite not taking so much as a single policy stance on much of anything, he seems to be inspiring a fervor on the left for an individual candidate that hasn't been seen in some time. He's got many big money celebrities in his corner and is even picking off support from the Hillary Clinton camp, which is utterly shocking. The big question still looms large though: Will the rubber meet the road with Obama the closer we get to Primary Day? Obama can't avoid taking stances on issues forever. In times like these, even the left and the right agree on the fact that this choice is going to be one of the most important ever. Will his lack of experience really come out to bite him in the backside? Again, he's avoided it thus far and is doing well. However, when he can't anymore, how will he, and most importantly Democratic voters, react?

John Edwards-- Edwards has been hopelessly quiet, save for his publicized spat with Commentator Ann Coulter, but Edwards has run a focused, bare bones campaign. Edwards has done this thing before and really never got rid of the campaign infrastructure he had in 2004. Edwards seems to have the most out-in-the-open and focused strategy of any of the candidates. He learned in 2004 that a strong showing in Iowa and New Hampshire can completely win this thing and in my view, he's right. Edwards is by far in the best position in the places that matter. He's incredibly popular in Iowa. He looks like an overwhelming favorite there. If he wins New Hampshire, this thing's over, but if he finishes second, Obama and Hillary need to move over in a big way, if not get out of the way entirely. Sure, Edwards has appeared whiny thus far and has even had to beat off conservative attacks regarding two insane-o bloggers who were working as campaign staffers for him, but more or less, still seems to be in a pretty solid place all things considered.

The Rest-- Something about this Democratic field makes me think we may have a dark horse emerge. My pick is going to be New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson. If Richardson can get some media, I think he'll win the primary. Yes, I said it. Not only is he by far the most experienced candidate in the race, it's all experience that involve critical issues to voters this election cycle. He's got 8 years worth of experience in the House of Reps and will be able to work congress well. He's got two years of experience under his belt as a Governor in New Mexico, which also makes him credible on illegal immigration, not to mention he's, uh, Hispanic too. He worked as the Sec. of Energy for the Clinton administration which makes him a credible voice on the energy crisis and then spent his final days with Bill as the US Ambassador to the UN. If he can frame the debate as one about experience, he'll cleanly run over Hillary and Obama. He's incredibly dangerous. Two tax cuts in New Mexico will also give him cross over appeal. Whether he can get media or not is a big question, but Obama and Hillary talking qualifications with Richardson would be like two little leaguers trying to prove they can hit a baseball farther than Barry Bonds. Look out.

Chris Dodd shouldn't be in this race, period. Whoever told him he had a shot at getting anything higher than 3% in this race should be fired. He's not just dead on arrival, he's been dead for the last 5 years.

Dennis Kucinich.... riiight.

The rest of the field is certainly defined by the 'who cares' category.


I'll try and do a monthly analysis of where we're at with this whole mess. It's shaping up to be a very interesting race, indeed.